Thursday, May 07, 2009
S&P 500 in for a MAJOR CORRECTION soon
Labels: sp 500, stock market
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
What is long term in the equity markets?
http://www.linkedin.com/answers/financial-markets/equity-markets/MKT_EQU/471208-37949623
What is long term in the equity markets?
“Long term investment” is one of the very often used and very less understood term. Whenever someone speaks of long term, be it an investor or a fund manager, the only thing that comes to my mind is he has lost money as I feel ‘Long term is only when you are wrong in the short term’.
What is long term in your view.
My answer is no offense meant…longterm for me is like “etc”. Its a hard fact for every investors that the real meaning of long term is ‘Long term is only when you are wrong in the short term’. I’m a small investor thus maybe my thinking is not the same as the one who goes long term. But im in this business half my life so i have known and experienced my clients pain and gain. Long term is a no cut loss investment and involve justifying your mistake once your stock plummet by saying “im not worried, im in for the long haul”. How can we be sure that in 5 years time, our term investment can rake profits. We are no Warren Buffet whose pockets are way to deep to fathom. For most of us, we’re a one stock - buy investors. Meaning we buy one time and that’s it. Markets are dynamic and so complex nowadays. What is appealing in the 1930’s is not the same as today. Honestly, when i hold a seminar and somebody ask what is the best stock for the long term, i tell them humbly, “you pick one and i’ll say yes”. An analyst cannot go wrong in his calls, advising his clients what to buy for the long haul. and modesty aside, it’s the simplest question which even my 7-year old daughter can answer. NO offense meant.
Labels: equities, long term investment, stock market, what i slong term investment
On Broker's Analysis - MEGAWORLD (PSE: MEG)
Meg's top buyers
Time & Sales
Cross sales
This is one of the reason why most of my clients who have megaworld shares sold today. early trading we saw a barrage of buying done by foreign brokers. From the way they aggressively bought up the shares, program buying is their theme for today. Filipino traders have a festival on Meg’s occasion today. Unfortunately, this festivity where local traders are making a profit on foreign brokers’ buying and selling are about to end. The Philippine Stock Exchange are about to adapt a rule hiding a broker’s identity in buying and selling. Once implemented, local traders and investors can no longer “monitor” who’s buying and selling. This rule for me is anti-investor and protects only the big foreign houses. There will be massive front running and investors have no protection whatsoever, specially if they “put an open price order” to their brokers’ discretion. Anyway, that’s another story.
Back to Meg. Program buying have huge impact on the intraday activities of a stock price. A magnitude such as this will definitely buoy up the stock. Same is true to program selling. In timing the “ride”, I look for huge crosses to signal that the “program” is nearing completion or have rested. This is the same example i posted on PEPSI’s broker’s analysis and the relevance of crosses. In Meg, CLSA’s activity is definitely program buying. From near mid 0.70s on the way up to 0.80s. After which, made huge crosses at 0.82 and 0.84. For me that’s the signal that the program was done for the day, thus we sell. If it continues on the next day, buying back even at a price higher than our selling price is not a problem with us. We don’t buy price, we buy momentum and patterns and reasons. Same goes as why we sell.
Labels: broker's analysis, cross sale, megaworld, philippine stock market, pse, pse meg, stock market
Saturday, April 25, 2009
The $1 Technical Analysis
sp500 target of 950 this may09 is still on.a free sample technical analysis at my personal blog. i believe the may 4 stress test is a non event. i think major short covering will happen as the news discount itself, leading to a spike at the 950 neck. after which, being a short term nature of the spike, profit taking will set in as investors will realized the sp500 have gone up too fast too soon.
picture perfect: driving force of the sp spike to 950 is the n0n event may 4 scenario. weekly job loss chart is in parabolic spike as well. if the paras is in wave 5 now, it will top this may09 or weaken a bit. the last study i have was in january when i mistook wave 3 as 5 with a target of may09 as the para burst. as most analyst were searching for the next bubble, i have search mine in a form of us weekly job loss.
back to sp. a wonderful inverted hs may take place after the said 950 sp spike. testing the 50ma on the daily chart, possible 800 low to mid. time element will be 3 months or so in forming right shoulder. a break at the 950 neck will mean 1k target in late quarter and possible yr end target of 1100 or near. caveat.
please see chart of s&p 500 on my previous post.
I am offering my services to any foreign investors, institution, brokerage houses, banks and many others. For a minimal “hard earned living” fee of $1 only, any charts, any markets, you send i’ll gladly make a technical analysis. paypal payment. there’s no harm in trying me out.
Labels: charting, commodities analysis, forex, fx, gold, sp 500, stock market, technical analysis
Friday, April 24, 2009
S&P 500 Weekly Chart
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Chart Vault
Labels: aud usd pair, commodities analysis, euro/gbp, euro/usd, forex, gold, gold chart, oil, oil chart, philippine stock market, phisix, pse, psei, stock market, technical analysis, usd/yen
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